By William J. Furney
Global warming is set to hit a devastating 3.1°C by the end of this century—more than double the target set in the Paris Agreement—unless immediate action is taken to close an alarming emissions gap, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Released in the lead-up to the 2025 target for the next set of climate commitments, the 2024 Emissions Gap Report reveals that despite widespread pledges, global emissions continue to climb, with 2023 recording the highest ever emissions levels at 57.1 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e). Without an urgent course correction, this trajectory all but guarantees a future marked by increasingly catastrophic impacts, from extreme heatwaves and rising sea levels to intensified droughts and biodiversity loss.
The 2024 report, produced by a team of 58 climate scientists and policy experts, outlines what nations must accomplish to hit the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, by reducing emissions by 42% from 2019 levels by 2030. But UNEP’s findings reveal that not only are current policies insufficient, they also lack the urgency needed to prevent crossing key temperature thresholds. To keep the 1.5°C goal alive, the report says, global emissions must fall by an unprecedented 7.5% every year until 2035—a rate of reduction far beyond anything achieved to date.
Unprecedented Rise in Emissions
The global picture painted by the report is stark. Greenhouse gas emissions grew by 1.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, accelerating faster than the 0.8% average annual growth seen over the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic. The surge was driven largely by the power generation, transport and agriculture sectors, with the power sector alone contributing 15.1 GtCO₂e. Meanwhile, emissions from international aviation jumped nearly 20% as air travel rebounded, adding to a mounting problem UNEP describes as “dangerously off course.”
The G20 economies, which together account for 77% of global emissions, were identified as crucial players in achieving the necessary reductions. But UNEP’s report underscores a concerning trend: most G20 nations are either stalled or lagging on their climate commitments. While some progress has been made, the report finds that current policies across the G20 collectively will fail to meet their 2030 pledges, even if fully implemented. Only a handful of countries are on track to meet their targets, and even these fall short of the reductions needed to prevent warming beyond 1.5°C or 2°C.
Cost of Delay
The consequences of inaction go beyond higher temperatures. Every fraction of a degree counts in terms of lives, economies and ecosystems saved, the report emphasises. The current trajectory means that not only would the world miss the 1.5°C target, but it would face a host of escalating impacts, including food and water scarcity, coastal flooding and increasingly frequent natural disasters. A delay in addressing emissions also shrinks the carbon budget—the total emissions allowable to stay within a target temperature—making it much harder to achieve these targets even if aggressive measures are eventually adopted.
UNEP’s report calculates that achieving the 1.5°C pathway would require emissions to peak immediately and then drop by nearly half by 2030. This path demands unprecedented investments and policy shifts, including a sixfold increase in clean energy spending, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies where emissions are expected to grow. To meet these targets, UNEP calls for a global mobilisation on a scale “never seen before.”
Sectoral Failures and Missed Targets
Much of the emissions increase can be attributed to the sustained use of fossil fuels across multiple sectors. The power sector continues to be the largest source of emissions, yet efforts to transition to renewables have been slow. Solar and wind technologies, while advancing and offering significant emission-reduction potential, still account for a minor share of global energy output. UNEP notes that if solar and wind energy deployments reach full potential, they could account for 27% of emission reductions by 2030. But current commitments fall short of such ambitious deployment, with countries failing to align investment and policy support to meet these goals.
Transport, another major contributor, saw substantial emissions increases due to a resurgence in road travel and air traffic following the pandemic. The aviation sector alone grew by 19.5% over 2022 levels, underscoring the need for sustainable fuels and alternatives. Agriculture and forestry also continue to contribute heavily to emissions, with livestock and land-use changes driving up CO₂ and methane levels. UNEP recommends accelerated reforestation efforts, improved forest management, and demand-side changes to reduce emissions in agriculture and energy-intensive industries.
G20’s Pivotal Role
As the world’s largest economies and emitters, G20 members are called upon to shoulder the bulk of the responsibility in narrowing the emissions gap. Despite their outsized contribution to emissions, G20 nations have been slow to peak and reduce emissions. Seven G20 countries, including China and India, have yet to reach their emissions peak, a critical milestone for eventual net-zero targets. For nations where emissions have already peaked, UNEP warns that decarbonisation efforts must drastically speed up to stay on course.
The report further stresses that G20 countries should commit to “Paris-aligned” reductions that reflect both equity and fairness. Many low-emission countries, particularly those in the African Union and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), contribute minimally to global warming yet face its most severe impacts. Fair-share reductions would mean that developed nations shoulder a larger portion of the burden, supported by targeted climate finance and technology transfer to developing economies.
Investment and Policy Overhaul Needed
To bridge the emissions gap, UNEP estimates that investment in climate mitigation needs to increase sixfold by 2030. This includes financing for renewable energy, energy efficiency measures and innovations in sustainable agriculture. Crucially, the report advocates for a redesigned global financial framework that channels resources to developing countries, which face growing energy demands as their economies expand. Without this investment shift, UNEP argues, emerging markets will continue to rely on carbon-intensive sources.
Achieving the necessary investment levels, UNEP suggests, is possible but requires a coordinated response from the public and private sectors, as well as strong international cooperation. This means not only targeting carbon emissions but also addressing systemic barriers such as inadequate infrastructure, policy inconsistencies and a lack of incentives for green investments.
Next Steps
The UNEP report calls on nations to align their 2025 commitments with Paris Agreement targets and adopt immediate, rigorous policies to cap and reduce emissions. The report highlights the urgent need for each country to establish a robust set of next-step measures by February 2025, including an explicit breakdown of how they will triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency and transition away from fossil fuels. UNEP’s findings reinforce the reality that failing to bridge the emissions gap now will leave the world facing the high costs of climate inaction for generations.
Without immediate, drastic changes, the report concludes, “the world is heading toward a 3.1°C future, a scenario that can and must be avoided.”
- Image: File.