By William J. Furney
In a striking prediction, Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, has signalled the arrival of superintelligence — artificial intelligence that far surpasses human capabilities — in less than a decade. In a new post on his personal blog, Altman outlines a future where AI could revolutionise industries, redefine human potential and create new challenges for society.
He claims “it is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days” and highlights the profound impact it may have on the world.
The idea that superintelligence could emerge within such a short timeframe is a bold assertion, marking a pivotal moment in the conversation about artificial intelligence. For Altman, this milestone may be “the most consequential fact about all of history so far.” With AI advancing at an unprecedented rate, he foresees a future where machines can outperform human minds in almost every domain.
The Intelligence Age
Altman’s post introduces the concept of “the Intelligence Age,” a new era where artificial intelligence transforms nearly every aspect of life. In his view, AI’s ability to enhance human capabilities could lead to breakthroughs in areas such as healthcare, education and scientific research. “How did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity? In three words: deep learning worked,” he writes.
“In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it,” says Altman, explaining how OpenAI and the broader AI research community have accelerated the development of increasingly sophisticated AI systems. By scaling up deep learning and investing significant resources, they have created models like ChatGPT that showcase the power of AI to assist and augment human abilities.
The potential for AI to improve human lives is immense. In healthcare, for example, superintelligent AI could accelerate drug discovery, helping scientists develop cures for diseases that have long eluded traditional research methods. In education, AI could provide personalised learning experiences for students, helping each individual reach their full potential by adapting to their unique learning styles and needs. Such advancements could reshape society, driving a new wave of innovation and prosperity.
The Road to Superintelligence
Altman’s confidence in the arrival of superintelligence is rooted in the rapid progress AI has made in recent years. He acknowledges that while it may take longer than a few thousand days, “I’m confident we’ll get there.” This prediction reflects his belief that the future of AI is not only inevitable but also transformative in ways we have yet to fully understand.
Superintelligence will likely arise from the continued improvement of current AI technologies. As Altman explains, deep learning has already laid the groundwork, and with increasing computational power, algorithmic sophistication, and data, AI systems will become even more capable. The question is no longer whether AI will surpass human intelligence, but when — and how society will respond to the resulting changes.
Altman compares the development of superintelligence to previous technological revolutions, noting that while it will bring extraordinary benefits, it will also pose significant challenges. As AI systems take on more tasks traditionally performed by humans, there is a risk that many jobs will be displaced. The labour market could undergo significant disruptions, with entire industries affected by automation and AI-driven processes.
Risks and Challenges
Altman acknowledges the risks associated with superintelligence. While the potential benefits are staggering, the dangers of unchecked AI development are equally significant. He notes that superintelligent AI could be misused or abused, particularly if it falls into the hands of malicious actors or is developed without appropriate safeguards. This raises concerns about security, privacy, and the ethical use of AI technologies.
Altman also stresses the importance of global cooperation in managing the development of superintelligence. He argues that the responsibility for creating and regulating AI should not rest solely with a few corporations or governments. Instead, it will require a collaborative approach that involves technologists, ethicists and policymakers. “We must ensure that AI is developed and deployed in ways that benefit all of humanity, rather than exacerbating existing inequalities or creating new ones,” he suggests.
Another key risk Altman identifies is economic inequality. If the benefits of AI are concentrated among a small group of individuals or organisations, it could lead to a widening gap between the rich and poor. This is why Altman advocates for democratising access to AI, ensuring that its advantages are distributed more evenly across society.
Democratising AI Access
One of the most significant themes in Altman’s post is the need to make AI resources — particularly computing power and energy — widely available. He argues that ensuring broad access to AI will be crucial in preventing the technology from becoming a tool of the elite. “If we do not make compute and energy widely available, the Intelligence Age could exacerbate inequality and limit its potential to improve human life,” Altman warns.
He envisions a future where AI is not only a tool for innovation but also a force for social good. By making AI accessible to more people, society can harness its power to tackle global challenges like climate change, poverty and healthcare disparities. But this will require careful planning and regulation to ensure that AI is used ethically and responsibly.
* Image: File